Report ,  Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission

Adult Correctional Population Projections

Future correctional facility population projections in order to inform and determine resource needs.



The Sentencing Commission was mandated to develop a computerized simulation model to be used to prepare prison population projections. It prepares projections on an annual basis in conjunction with the Department of Public Safety’s Division of Adult Correction and Juvenile Justice, which are used to help determine long‐term resource needs. The simulation model uses empirical information about how offenders are processed through the criminal justice system to produce the projections. For the majority of the past decade, the accuracy of the prison population projections has been within 2%.